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17.06.2019, 04:40

An interesting divergence of opinions."s Diamondbacks Farm TeamsGameday ThreadsDiamondbacks NewsDiamondbacks Game ReportsFang FoodThe Diamondbacks’ playoff odds: 10 games inNew http://www.bluejaysfanproshop.com/authe ... son-jersey ,10commentsAn interesting divergence of opinions. EDTShareTweetShareShareThe Diamondbacks’ playoff odds: 10 games inJayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY SportsI wasn’t originally going to do this series of articles again for 2019. Expectations for the season were generally muted, with about two-thirds of fans expecting a losing record in our pre-Opening Day poll. But this morning, Jack nudged me in the direction of the projections, and there’s an interesting divergence in the figures. This is probably to be expected at this stage: indeed, it’s not dissimilar to what we saw last season. At this point, the projections are still far more significant than the actual results: for obvious reasons, the former diverge while the latter are “hard”, fixed numbers. Still, the difference in the predictions is quite significant. Here are the numbers for the four systems.Fangraphs: 7.6% (division: 1.5%; wild-card 6.2%)Baseball Prospectus: 20.3% (division: 6.6%; wild-card 13.7%)FiveThirtyEight: 22% (division 7%; wild-card 15%)Numberfire: 12.9% (division: 2.8%; wild-card 10.1%)So, take your pick. That’s almost a 3x factor of difference between the pessimism of Fangraphs and the optimism shown by FiveThirtyEight. There are a couple of reasons for this. Fangraphs still is unconvinced this is a .500 team, expecting the 2019 Diamondbacks to be a 76.5 win team. In contrast both BP and 538 are more bullish Roberto Osuna Jersey , now projecting us to reach 80 wins. I am a bit confused by the latter “only” giving the Dodgers an 80% chance to win the division, considering they currently project Los Angeles for a 98-win season, with no-one else in the NL West even reaching .500. Fangraphs makes the Dodgers a 93.3% division chance, while projecting them to win a mere 95 wins. I wish I’d made a note of the other three systems before the season started, but it’s interesting to see how things have changed over the ten games so far on Fangraphs, where you can check out the historical odds for the year. In the National League, the East and West have remained relatively stable. but in the Central, we’ve seen the Cubs’ poor start drop them by more than 20%, from pre-season odds of 64.2% down to 43.3%. In the AL, you won’t be surprised to hear it’s the Red Sox which have done something similar. losing slightly more than the Cubs: from 90.3% initially, they now sit at 67.7%. The Rays are the biggest beneficiaries http://www.bluejaysfanproshop.com/authe ... son-jersey , almost doubling their chances to 54.9%.I’ll keep an eye on this as things go forward. But after what last September brought, I think it’s safe to say no-one in Sedona Red will be getting excited about a post-season spot until one is actually clinched... The public went 2-1 again on Sunday, and finally got an actual profit from that outcome.They've found three new spots for Monday night, all of which back favorites once again.For the third straight day, the public’s favorite plays went 2-1 on Sunday. But this time, unlike the past two days, it led to an actual profit.With new series beginning Monday, the public has targeted a few new spots tonight, and as you probably expect, they’re all favorites once again.>> All odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your betsNew York Mets (-164) vs. Cincinnati Reds7:10 p.m. ETSeventy-four percent of bettors are behind the Mets tonight, but they’ve fallen from -170 to -164 as those tickets have accounted for only 65% of dollars wagered.Why the public loves the Mets: It takes a lot for the public to feel comfortable betting the Mets as a heavy favorite these days. Apparently Paul Molitor Jersey , a Noah Syndergaard vs. Homer Bailey pitching matchup qualifies as a lot — and perhaps it should — as the dueling arms have an ERA difference of 2.88.Monday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Rangers and Astros-GiantsRead nowNew York Yankees (-191) at Chicago White Sox8:10 p.m. ETThree out of every four tickets on this game have been placed on the Yankees, making them tonight’s second-most popular side. They’ve also drawn 88% of dollars and have moved a hair from -190 to -191.Why the public loves the Yanks: The Yankees just dropped four straight to the Red Sox in Boston, and bettors are under the assumption that there’s no way they won’t turn it around against the Sox of the other color variety. While the Yanks have been busy losing, the White Sox have quietly won four in a row, which — to a public bettor — is all the more reason to expect things to turn around tonight.Chicago Cubs (-190) at Kansas City Royals8:15 p.m. ETThe Cubs are tonight’s most popular bet by a good amount. They’ve attracted 84% of bettors, but since those account for 77% of dollars Chicago has fallen from -200 to -190.Why the public loves Chicago: Kansas City’s win percentage is hovering just over .300 at this point, so they likely won’t be getting a public majority backing more than a couple times down the stretch this season. It certainly won’t be happening against the top team in the National League playing behind Cole Hamels, who threw five shutout innings with nine strikeouts in his first start with Chicago.
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